Is latest heatwave proof of global warming?

Is this current heatwave proof of global warming? Are the scientists agreed, and more to the point, should we panic?

The Met Office certainly believes that there is a link between carbon emissions and rising temperatures. John Hammond, a Met Office spokesman, explained: "When it comes down to an individual event like this it's difficult to pinpoint but with this and the 2003 heatwave, it's the sort of event we're looking to see more of in the future. By 2040, it's the kind of event we could see every summer.

"We expect to see this more often because we know temperatures have risen globally and man has had an impact on that since in the Industrial Revolution, when oil, coal and gas became more available, and we've seen the effects already."

However, Mr Hammond added that all was not lost. "How we use fossil fuels in the future is up to us and will determine what happens in the decades ahead. If we continue to use them then this trend will continue."

Not so certain

Dr Emily Shuckburgh, from the department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at the University of Cambridge agreed.

"You can never attribute a particular hot summer to climate change because there's too much natural variation in the climate, but you can say there is now an increased chance of there being a hot summer.

"The analogy is with lung cancer - just because you smoke and had lung cancer doesn't necessarily mean it's because of the smoking, but you were at increased risk."

Dr Shuckburgh cited a study carried out by the Met Office after the 2003 heatwave, which suggested human-induced or 'anthropogenic' climate change had doubled the risk of heatwave. Also, work carried out by the UK Climate Impact programme, concluded England would experience an average annual temperature rise of between 2 and 3.5 centigrade (C) by the 2080s.

But before everyone rushes to install a wind turbine or a solar panel on their house, it is worth noting that not everyone is so certain.

Former chancellor Nigel Lawson has been outspoken on the issue. In an article in the Spectator in March, Lord Lawson accused the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of making assumptions that led to "a pronounced upward bias in projected climate change". He has argued the organisation should be shut down.

Natural variation

Critics of the climate change argument point out that there have always been extreme temperatures. The hottest July day ever previously recorded was as long ago as 1911, when Epsom in Surrey reached 36C (96.8F).

Dr Shuckburgh added: "This is the difficulty. There is a lot of natural variation; we always did have that. You can have a decade of cooler than average winters but that's just a natural part our atmosphere."

Dr Benny Peiser, a social anthropologist from the faculty of science at Liverpool John Moores University, is vehement that academics are far from agreeing on the issue.

"There certainly isn't a consensus about the link between the heatwave and global warming," he said. "You cannot link an individual event so many meteorologists would find that hard to swallow."

"No one questions that we are going through a period of global warming and many researchers believe that it's mainly caused by greenhouse gas emissions. But, many researchers do not, so we should not ignore that and assume that chapter is closed."

Dr Peiser added: "I think the most important message to the public is that whatever causes global warming we have to live with it and prepare ourselves. There's no need to panic because whatever happens won't be a threat to our civilisation.

"Every year 40,000 people die because of the cold and some medical researchers say that on balance a hotter climate might bring down the number who die so there might be benefits. I don't want to negate the problems, but one has to say there are always two sides."