Risk of flooding in UK 'underestimated'

Experts at Durham University said estimates of the risk of flooding in the UK had been based mainly on records that began less than 50 years ago, when there was a period of less flooding.

The scientists looked at rainfall and river flow patterns over 250 years. They found the weather in the UK fluctuated between very wet and very dry periods, each lasting for a few years at a time, but also between very long periods of a few decades which could be particularly wet or particularly dry.

According to the findings, published in the current edition of the academic journal Geography, there was a "flood poor" period in the UK between the early 1960s to the late 1990s, when the country was relatively flood-free - especially when compared with some periods in the late 19th century and early 20th century. It warned Britain had now entered a "flood rich" period.

Professor Stuart Lane from Durham University's new Institute of Hazard and Risk Research, who led the research, said: "We have not been good at recognising just how flood-prone we can be.

"We have probably underestimated the frequency of flooding, which is now happening as it did before the 1960s - much more often than we are used to."

Committee inquiry

Prof Lane explained: "We entered a generally flood-poor period in the 1960s, earlier in some parts of the country, later in others. This does not mean there was no flooding, just that there was much less than before the 1960s and what we are seeing now.

"This has lowered our own awareness of flood risk in the UK. This has made it easier to go on building on floodplains. It has also helped us to believe that we can manage flooding without too much cost, simply because there was not that much flooding to manage."

He said the Government estimated that 2.1 million properties and five million people were at risk of flooding, but that "current estimates of flood risks could be much too cautious in terms of potential damage."

"We are now having to learn to live with levels of flooding that are beyond most people's living memory," added Prof Lane.

This week the House of Commons Environment Select Committee said there had been a "total lack of awareness" about the vulnerability of large parts of the country until last summer's devastating floods.

The committee of MPs found areas which had been considered at "low risk" were badly affected by surface water flooding in June and July last year. It also found that flood defence measures focussed almost exclusively on river and coastal flooding and that the infrastructure to deal with floods caused by heavy rainfall was in an "unclear and chaotic state".

Further information on the committee's inquiry and report can be found here.